Work packages > Work package 7

Start date or starting event: Month 1
Work package title: Development or adaptation of computerised FMD spread models to optimise vaccination schemes
Activity Type: RTD
Work Package Leader: DTU
Participants: CVI, IIL, KVI

Objectives

The primary objective is to generate scientifically-based methods for improving the prevention, control and eradication of FMD by alternative vaccination strategies. This is achieved by using existing stochastic simulation models. These include: 1) the InterSpread Plus model from Massey University; 2) The Davis model from University of California; and 3) the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) developed by the Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health (CEAH), which are part of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and 4) other models within the Consortium. The specific objectives of this WP are:

  • 1. To examine the availability of reliable information on parameters describing the populations at risk in target regions and countries, primarily those represented in the participating countries or those which data are being explored through collaborations and networks associated with the project
  • 2. To evaluate the three defined models, complemented with other models within the Consortium, for their sensitivity to weak or missing information on parameter estimates for candidate regions and countries
  • 3. To draft possible relevant vaccination strategies for the candidate regions/countries and their susceptible animal populations to develop test scenarios for the simulations by the simulation models
  • 4. To examine the suitability of modifying as deemed necessary the models to adapt them to deal with the relevant scenarios
To carry out test simulations with the adapted models, validate output from those models with any available outbreak data from relevant regions/countries and screen the working models for estimated effects of alternative modelling strategies deemed relevant.

Description of work

  • Task 1. Examine the availability of reliable information on parameters describing the populations at risk in target regions and countries, primarily those represented in the participating countries or those which data are being explored through collaborations and networks associated with the project
  • Task 2. Evaluate three models (the InterSpread Plus model; the Davis model; the NAADSM), complemented with other models within the Consortium, for their sensitivity to weak or missing information on parameter estimates for candidate regions and countries
  • Task 3. Draft possible relevant FMD vaccination strategies for the candidate regions/countries and their susceptible animal populations to develop test scenarios for the simulations by the chosen models
  • Task 4. Examine the suitability of modifying as deemed necessary the models to adapt them to deal with the relevant scenarios
  • Task 5. Carry out test simulations with the adapted models, validate output from those models with any available outbreak data from relevant regions/countries and screen the working models for estimated effects of alternative modelling strategies deemed relevant

Deliverables

  • 7.1. Inventory of available information for input parameters to feed into simulation models (the InterSpread Plus model; the Davis model; the NAADSM; other models within the Consortium) by participating country/region (M18)
  • 7.2. Ranking of the simulation models according to their likely sensitivity to weak or missing information from participating countries/regions (M21)
  • 7.3. Inventory of relevant vaccination strategies to be simulated by participating country/region (M24)
  • 7.4. Modified models to be used in simulations (M30)
  • 7.5. Resulting vaccination strategies following results of the chosen modelling simulations (M36)
  • 7.6. Peer-reviewed publications (M36)

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